Thailand’s Sector Winners and Losers Amid Middle East Conflict: An Investor’s Guide

Uneven Ripples: How the Middle East Conflict Shapes Thailand’s Corporate Landscape

The ongoing conflict in the Middle East is sending shockwaves through global markets, and Thailand is no exception. For expats, investors, and business leaders, understanding these sector-specific impacts is crucial for making informed decisions in an uncertain environment.

Stability at the Index Level, Volatility Beneath the Surface

Despite heightened geopolitical risks, the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) index has shown surprising resilience. According to Bualuang Securities, aggregate earnings estimates for the SET edged up by just 0.1% in March 2026. This headline stability, however, masks significant divergences at the sector level—creating both opportunities and pitfalls for investors.

Sectoral Winners: Energy, Agriculture, and the New Economy

• Energy & Refining: Upstream energy and refinery stocks have seen earnings upgrades of 2.8% over the past month. Elevated oil prices, a direct consequence of Middle East supply disruptions, have bolstered revenues for these companies.
• Agriculture: The sector has outperformed, with earnings estimates jumping 12.2%. Higher rubber and livestock prices, coupled with pre-locked feed costs for meat producers, have driven margin expansion.
• Petrochemicals: Modest upgrades have been recorded, especially for firms like PTT Global Chemical (PTTGC), as tighter supply has improved product spreads.
• Telecommunications & Digital Infrastructure: Rising average revenue per user and the ongoing digital transformation have supported telecom stocks. Industrial estate developers and infrastructure plays, such as Gulf Development (GULF) and WHA Corporation, are benefiting from robust foreign direct investment (FDI) and government fast-track policies.

Sectoral Losers: Cost-Pressured and Domestic Demand-Exposed Industries

• Beverages & Small Power Producers: Higher packaging and gas prices are squeezing margins, with companies struggling to pass on increased costs to consumers.
• Construction Materials & Downstream Oil Retailers: These sectors face similar cost-push pressures, eroding profitability.
• Retail & Property Development: Retailers are grappling with rising utility and logistics costs, while property developers—especially those targeting mid- to lower-income buyers—have seen sharp earnings downgrades due to weakening consumer demand.

Investment Themes: Navigating Volatility with Strategic Focus

Bualuang Securities recommends focusing on five key themes to weather the current volatility:

• Commodity-linked companies (e.g., Betagro Plc) that benefit from rising prices.
• Petrochemical leaders (e.g., PTTGC) poised to gain from supply disruptions and global demand recovery.
• Infrastructure and digitalization plays (e.g., GULF, ADVANC, WHA, AMATA) supported by strong FDI and structural trends.
• Defensive domestic stocks (e.g., Central Pattana) offering stable recurring income.
• Oversold names (e.g., Bumrungrad Hospital, Minor International) where valuations have been pressured by sentiment rather than fundamentals.

Key Takeaways for Expats and Investors

For those living, working, or investing in Thailand, the current environment underscores the importance of sector selection and risk management. While headline market figures may appear stable, the underlying dynamics are anything but. Energy, agriculture, and digital infrastructure offer relative safety and upside, while consumer-facing and cost-sensitive sectors warrant caution.

As always, diversification and a focus on structural growth drivers remain prudent strategies amid global uncertainty.

Source: Bangkok Post