Bitcoin’s 2026 Rally: Why Investors Should Brace for Volatility Before the Next Bull Run

Bitcoin’s Rapid Ascent: A Cautious Perspective for Thailand’s Investors

Bitcoin’s recent surge above US$80,000 has reignited global interest in digital assets, drawing the attention of expats, investors, and financial professionals in Thailand. However, seasoned market observers are urging caution, suggesting that this rally may be running ahead of its historical cycle and could be vulnerable to a near-term correction before a more sustainable bull market emerges later in 2026.

Historical Cycles: Why Timing Matters

Bitcoin’s price movements have historically followed a four-year cycle, closely tied to its programmed “halving” events. These halvings, which reduce the rate at which new coins are created, typically spark renewed interest and price appreciation. However, analysis by Udomsak Rakwongwan, co-founder of FWX and a mathematics lecturer at Kasetsart University, indicates that the current rally is unfolding earlier than expected within this cycle.

According to Rakwongwan, Bitcoin’s sharp advance reflects strong investor enthusiasm but does not yet mark the start of a true, sustained bull market. Instead, he warns that the market could see another bout of downside volatility, with some participants eyeing the $55,000 level as a potential support zone. For those considering entry or expansion of their digital asset holdings, this suggests that patience and risk management are paramount.

Macro Headwinds: Global Factors at Play

Beyond Bitcoin’s internal dynamics, broader macroeconomic uncertainties are exerting pressure on risk assets. Geopolitical tensions and shifting US monetary policy are key factors. The anticipated appointment of Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve chairman, known for his opposition to aggressive monetary easing, signals a potential tightening of global liquidity. Higher interest rates and a reduced money supply could undermine one of Bitcoin’s core investment narratives—as a hedge against inflation fueled by easy money.

• Geopolitical risks: Capital outflows from riskier assets, including cryptocurrencies, may accelerate during periods of global uncertainty.
• US monetary policy: A less accommodative stance could dampen speculative appetite and slow the flow of funds into digital assets.

November: The Next Inflection Point?

Cycle analysis suggests that Bitcoin typically peaks 12–18 months after a halving event, with a sharp correction phase preceding a gradual recovery. Rakwongwan identifies November 2026 as a likely inflection point, when a more robust and sustained bull run could begin. This aligns with historical patterns and growing consensus among institutional investors, who appear to be positioning themselves for a longer-term upswing.

For expats and investors in Thailand, this means the current period is best viewed as an accumulation phase rather than a time to chase short-term gains. A disciplined approach, such as dollar-cost averaging, allows investors to build positions gradually and avoid the pitfalls of market timing. Maintaining a two-year investment horizon could align well with the expected peak of the next cycle.

Beyond Bitcoin: Structural Shifts and Tokenisation

Looking further ahead, the digital asset market is poised for broader transformation. Tokenisation—the process of bringing real-world assets like equities and funds onto blockchain networks—could reshape global capital flows and expand investment access. This trend may become a major long-term driver for digital assets, potentially eclipsing the traditional cycle-driven dynamics of Bitcoin.

However, a more restrictive monetary regime could have wide-ranging implications. Ethereum, often seen as more correlated with equity markets, may face sharper corrections during risk-off periods. Meanwhile, global equities and emerging markets, including those in Southeast Asia, could see reduced capital inflows if liquidity tightens. In an extreme scenario, tokenisation of major US assets could draw capital away from emerging markets as investors gain easier access to high-quality assets via blockchain platforms.

Key Takeaways for Thailand’s Expat and Investor Community

• Expect volatility: The current rally may be unsustainable in the near term; corrections are likely before a true bull run later in 2026.
• Focus on accumulation: Use disciplined strategies like dollar-cost averaging and maintain a long-term perspective.
• Monitor macro trends: US monetary policy and global liquidity conditions will play a significant role in shaping digital asset performance.
• Watch for structural shifts: Tokenisation and blockchain innovation could redefine investment opportunities in the coming years.

For those navigating Thailand’s evolving investment landscape, a measured approach to digital assets—grounded in historical context and macro awareness—remains the prudent path forward.

Source: Bangkok Post